Forex Focus — Jul 20, 2026, 21:00 UTC

Transcript

The Fed's Jefferson warned today that policy may shift if inflation persists above target. This creates a hawkish undertone for the dollar. Major FX pairs are remarkably flat, with EUR/USD holding 1.1428. The Dollar Index shows limited directional conviction. Geopolitical tensions persist after US airstrikes in Iran, yet FX reaction is muted. The market is digesting the Fed's cautious stance. Jefferson reaffirmed the 2% inflation target. However, his warning of potential shifts adds a clear hawkish bias. This stasis across majors means we lack an exotic pair with unusual volatility today. For tomorrow, 1.1428 acts as a crucial pivot for EUR/USD. Watch for a break above 1.1450, 22 pips higher, or below 1.1400, 28 pips lower, for directional cues. Bitcoin, meanwhile, saw limited reaction to the Iran news, trading at $65,259. Fear remains elevated at 29 on the Fear & Greed Index. That's your Forex Focus on rawfin.tv.